My view is this: we wouldn’t have a conflict in Asia if not for the intervention by the U.S. The U.S. has a security pact with Japan and has military bases and naval basis all over Asia.
The Chinese economy is highly vulnerable to interruptions in the supply of metals and of oil. 47% of global metals consumption is from China. It’s up from 4% in 1990 and 10% in the year 2000. So they have become a huge factor.
For their industrial production, they need resources; they need iron ore from Australia, copper from Australia and elsewhere, and oil from the Middle East. That’s their only source of oil — the Middle East –, compared to say the U.S. that can source oil from Canada, from Mexico and who have a rising domestic production.
So the Chinese are very concerned about interruptions of supplies; I think that over time, the Chinese will want to control the East and South China Sea. I do not think that they have any plans for aggression, but the U.S. wouldn’t be particularly happy either if, say, the Chinese or the Russians had military bases in the Caribbean, in Mexico, in Canada and so forth.
The Chinese cannot accept to be encircled by U.S. military bases in Central Asia, South East Asia, and North Asia. I think those tensions will increase over time.
