Yellen said very clearly that the rate hikes are data dependent. Data globally is getting worse. It’s not getting any better. We have a meaningful world trade slow down. We have geopolitical issues. We have, in Asia, countries that have exports that are down year-on-year double digits. We have a Brazilian recession. We have Greece… On top of all that, we have a strong dollar…
I think rates should be higher, don’t misunderstand me. I think they should have raised rates two years ago. But I don’t think the US economy is doing particularly well. One of the problems is affordability and cost-of-living increases. For most households, the cost of living has gone up very substantially, and so their spending power is limited. In addition to that, if you look at tax revenues in the US, corporate tax as a percent of GDP is essentially flat. However, what have gone up a lot as a percent of GDP are individual taxes. So it has some negative impacts on the economy. I think we could very well be in a recession in the US in six months.
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