Monday, October 24, 2016

Why DOW 100,000 is possible

The belief is obviously that a Trump victory would be negative for asset markets, for the US market, and that a Hillary victory would be positive. But I am not so sure about this belief for the simple reason that Hillary is basically a neocon and a warmonger. She has invaded or supported the invasion of variety of countries already. So, that may lead to more international tension. Whereas Trump is more aware of the fact that the US' superpower standing is gradually waning and that other countries are coming up and that US cannot fight and be the policeman of the whole world. [Trump realizes] they have to gradually start to negotiate with other countries on equal terms.


The Fed sniggers at the thought of a Trump victory. They are supporting Hillary Clinton as incidentally as the entire media establishment is support Hillary Clinton and is anti-Trump. 

My view is that in this environment we have now clear voices at the Fed and other central banks that basically they should be able to implement negative interest rates and that they might do well if they bought equities. So, under this scenario, you ask yourself what is actually the downside risk. 

In my view under both Trump and Hillary will continue to print money, there is no other way out, the system is basically bankrupt. 

So, money printing will continue and then the question is what will happen to asset market? In theory, they can continue to go up. As I pointed out, I am not optimistic about the global economy. But if you print enough money -- central banks' balance sheets have increased sixteen times between 1998 and 2015 -- why can't they go up another 10-20 times in the next five years? In that scenario, the Dow Jones could go to 100,000 and so on, anything is possible. We don't know how far the math professors at central banks will go.