As we go into 2017 the consensus is interest rates will go up, you want to be long US stocks and overweight US Dollars. But I think, but its also about the travel ban and protectionism.... But protectionism, I guarantee you, is not going to be good for the U.S. That for sure not.
The US has a trade and current account deficit today. That is not an issue today. The world has a huge supply of US Dollar floating around. Sometimes the global liquidity gets tighter but in general the US Dollar position and assets in the US depend on one factor - confidence of foreigners investing in USA. What if I'm a foreigner and I see a travel ban. So the private citizens, they see a travel ban on Muslims. Anyone with any brains will think what if tomorrow there is a travel ban on the Chinese and I own a property in the US or I own assets in the US and I can't access assets in the US. So I think this travel ban, psychologically, will have a very negative impact in the long run on the U.S. dollar and U.S. assets.
Number two, protectionism, I just came back from Mexico, the price level is now unbelievably low. So a lot of countries Turkey, Mexico but even in Asia because of the depreciation of the currency against the US Dollar, they have become quite reasonable in price.
